President Moon at a Crossroad

Following the recent Trump-Moon summit in Washington, DC, I was pleasantly surprised when President Trump refused to back sanctions relief for inter-Korean economic projects. Leading up to the summit, I thought that President Trump would support the re-opening of the KIC and tours to Kumgangsan based on Secretary of State Pompeo’s statements before Congress. President Moon remained true to his stance advocating for a phased process of “good enough” deals, while Trump stated

A third summit could happen. It’s step-by-step. It’s not going to go fast. But right now, we’re talking about the big deal… to get rid of the nuclear weapons.

In addition to Trump and Moon releasing separate statements, as opposed to a joint statement, Trump never mentioned the summit or President Moon at all on Twitter. In fact, his first mention of the Korean Peninsula since the summit came today, where he referenced Kim Jong Un.

I agree with Kim Jong Un of North Korea that our personal relationship remains very good, perhaps the term excellent would be even more accurate, and that a third Summit would be good in that we fully understand where we each stand. North Korea has tremendous potential for…….— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 13, 2019

It would appear that President Trump is listening to Bolton and Pompeo, and realizing that President Moon cannot be trusted regarding the DPRK.

What Does Inter-Korean Cooperation Mean?

Increasingly frustrated with the negotiation process, Kim Jong Un has turned up the rhetoric against his counterpart, Moon. Just today KJU was quoted stating,

남조선당국은 ‘오지랖 넓은 ‘중재자’, ‘촉진자’ 행세를 할 것이 아니라 민족의 일원으로서 민족의 이익을 옹호하는 당사자가 되어야 한다

The path before the South Korean authorities is not one of being ‘arbitrator’ or ‘facilitator,’ but becoming a defender of the Korean ethnicity’s interests as a member of the Korean nation.

Further, it was reported that Kim Jong Un, addressing provincial party officials and members of the military last month, indicated the reunification of the fatherland is the greatest task before the Korean people that can no longer be delayed. Reunification must happen by 2020 no matter what. And despite 2017 UNSCR sanctions prohibiting overseas DPRK labor, rumors have surfaced that the DPRK is recruiting soldiers to work construction projects abroad. If true, this would only further underscore the fact that DPRK sanctions are poorly monitored and enforced.

Meanwhile, the ROK government has suggested a plan to boost the DPRK economy by expanding the Outward Processing zone to incorporate the whole Korean Peninsula. Thus, any state that the ROK enjoys Most Favored Nation status with would apply preferential duties to DPRK produced goods, in accordance with the OP clause of their Free Trade Agreements. Of course, the Minjoo Party would have to either unilaterally violate UNSCR sanctions, or realize its goal of sanctions relief — something that some Democrats are pushing for.

After Hanoi, now is the a moment to re-build trust, not stoke fears.

In light of President Moon Jae-In’s visit with @POTUS, @RepAndyKimNJ and I are leading a letter urging President Trump to support our South Korean ally and allow them to pursue North-South business cooperation. pic.twitter.com/VcDQNz87Gr— Rep. Ro Khanna (@RepRoKhanna) April 11, 2019

As Moon Jae In’s approval ratings continuously fall amidst his sole focus on inter-Korean issues, Pyongyang is attacking his political opposition in the ROK. The Pyongyang Times has called out conservative groups in the ROK and is attempting to incite action by the pro-DPRK factions of the ROK.

It is self-evident that if they set the south Korean political circles on the rightist path in league with the Liberal Korea Party, they, in a frantic bid to seize power, will be bent on bloodthirsty vengeance against the progressive democratic forces that sent them downhill to ruin.
 
All the Korean compatriots within and without should no longer remain onlooker to the south Korean conservatives’ moves for revival.

What About the “Alliance Forged in Blood?”

As mentioned above, some Democratic legislators are buying into the Minjoo Party’s framing of the DPRK issue. Moreover, Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders has outsourced his Korea policy to a well-known pro-DPRK activist. Also, some members of the “Korean Studies” academy are joining the push for sanctions relief, peace accords, and “inter-Korean economic cooperation.” These academics, having no practical experience dealing with the regime, or worse, full-blown apologists for the regime, are unfortunately allowing the Kim regime to get away with public executions, massive political prisoner camps, and widespread purges of state officials. The DPRK is a pariah state that enables WMD proliferation, launches cyberattacks against Critical National Infrastructure, kidnaps citizens of foreign nations, and commits multiple other infringements on states’ sovereignty, to include murder. It should be treated as such.

Further straining the ROKUS Alliance is the Minjoo Party’s decision to ramp up nationalist anti-Japanese sentiment and engaging in provocative actions. While the ROK and Japan do not have an alliance per se, they both make up important “spokes” in the US effort to contain both DPRK and PRC aggression. US-ROK negotiations over war-time OPCON transfer is another weak point in the alliance. Recently, the ROK Defense Ministry opted to drop the designation “enemy” in reference to the DPRK. Given the number of Jusapa officials in high-level positions within the ROK juxtaposed with the cancellation of joint-readiness exercises, OPCON transfer in the near future could prove disastrous for the ROKUS Alliance and the security of the Korean people.

Absent any impeachment proceedings, we still have another 3 years of the Moon regime. Also, there’s no guarantees on who the US president will be following next year’s election. Donald Trump may favor paying less attention to the Korean question as he prepares for re-election, but his administration must move to resolve tensions between the ROK and Japan and keep the Jusapa faction in check. Otherwise, Kim’s stated goal of “immediate” reunification may become a reality, and that would have lasting impact beyond the Korean Peninsula.